Greg Woo! Maddux Woo!
Maddux got his 300th yesterday. I'm happy, because he is my favorite pitcher after Pedro and Bruce Hurst. So I'm happy for him, and I'm rooting for him to outlast and catch Clemens. Remember, when I said Clemens was the greatest pitcher of this generation? Well Maddux isn't far behind, and if he keeps pitching the way he has the last few weeks, he could certainly catch Clemens in terms of overall value. Maddux' peak value is already higher.

Here is the new 300 win club:

1.  Cy Young           511  

2.  Walter Johnson     417  

3.  Pete Alexander     373  

    Christy Mathewson  373  

5.  Pud Galvin         364  

6.  Warren Spahn       363  

7.  Kid Nichols        361  

8.  Tim Keefe          342  

9.  Steve Carlton      329  

10. John Clarkson      328  

11. Eddie Plank        326  

12. Nolan Ryan         324  

    Don Sutton         324  

14. Roger Clemens      322

15. Phil Niekro        318  

16. Gaylord Perry      314  

17. Tom Seaver         311     

18. Charley Radbourn   309 

19. Mickey Welch       307  

20. Lefty Grove        300  

    Early Wynn         300  

    Greg Maddux        300

Every guy on there except Maddux and Clemens is in the Hall of Fame. Both Maddux and Clemens will be first ballot guys, no suprises there. One of the things I'd like to point out is the common misconception that there will never be another 300 game winner. Some people are fond of saying this, mostly citing the five man rotation and specialized bullpens.

Well if you look at the list and break it down by the decades each player had their peaks, you get the following:

Pre-1900  6

00s-20s   5

20s-40s   1

40s-60s   2

60s-80s   5

80s-00s   2

The game has certainly changed, but its not like being a 300 game winner was ever easy. And it isn't supposed to be easy. For all the talk about the five man rotation, people ignore the improvements in medical technology and training routines that can extend the careers of the pitchers of today. Guys might not make 40 starts or pitch 400 innings any more, but they are able to pitch effectively well into their 40s. These things at least offset each other.

We will see another 300 game winner, but not any time soon. Randy might get there, but I doubt it. Pedro has a legitimate shot at it, he's only 32 and has 178 wins. Maddux had 202 at age 32. Pedro would have to stay healthy though, and thats a big question mark moving forward.

Young guys like Mark Prior, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson all have shots, but its way too early in their careers to even think about that. Especially with injuries, a big ass, injuries, and a late career start standing in their ways, respectively.

But the problem with projecting these young kids--aside from injuries--is that in order to get to 300 wins, they still have to spend most of their careers on good teams. If the Cubs go back to where they stood in the 80s & 90s, Prior won't even get close, until the Yankees trade failed prospects for him. Both Maddux and Clemens had the luxury of always playing on great teams. Of course, their teams were great largely because they had Maddux and Clemens at the top of the rotation, but they were never the only star in town.

Now that we have access to box scores for most games in history, there should be a better measure available than wins. We could take a pitchers game log, and figure out how many wins they should have got based on league average run support and league average bullpen support. That list would be much more impressive to me. I'm not sure it would change very much from the one above, but there would be a few suprise pitchers sneaking up the list.
Curt  ¶ 3:01 AM